Stokley Intelligence
What's moving in commercial real estate — and what it means for capital.
Sourced, dated analysis by asset class and market. Each piece separates reported data from Stokley's view and ends where it matters: the loan maturities, deadlines and repricings that create a need for capital.
Asset classes
Latest asset-class analysis.
Updated as new quarterly data is published. Every figure links to its source.
CRE Loan Maturities
Updated September 2026
2026 CRE Loan Maturity Wall
According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, $875 billion—17% of the $5.0 trillion of outstanding U.S. commercial and multifamily mortgages—is scheduled to mature in 2026, down 9% from $957 billion in 2025. Distress has not faded with the volume: Trepp's CMBS special servicing rate reached 11.42% in August 2026, its highest level since February 2013, and CRED iQ's CRE CLO distress rate jumped from 19% in July to 28% in August 2026.
Multifamily
Updated September 2026
Multifamily Market Outlook 2026
U.S. multifamily demand improved materially in Q2 2026 and absorption again exceeded completions, but rent growth remained modest and performance varied sharply by market. The practical issue for owners is timing: operating recovery may arrive later than a loan maturity, acquisition closing or recapitalization deadline.
Hotels
Updated September 2026
Hotel Market Outlook 2026: RevPAR & Debt
U.S. hotel performance strengthened through mid-2026: CoStar reported July 2026 occupancy of 69.7% and RevPAR of $119.77, up 8.2% year over year, while Lodging Econometrics projects new supply growth of just 1.3% in 2026. Credit is more mixed—Trepp's lodging CMBS delinquency rate rose to 5.35% in July 2026, and Trepp counts $18.7 billion of hotel CMBS loans maturing this year.
Office
Updated September 2026
Office Market 2026: Vacancy & Distress
U.S. office vacancy is edging down from its peak: CBRE reported 18.3% in Q2 2026, down 30 basis points in the quarter, as new construction fell to 15.4 million sq. ft. Debt stress has not eased at the same pace—Trepp's office CMBS delinquency rate rose to 11.91% in July 2026, and Yardi Matrix counts $289.2 billion of office loans that recently matured or mature by the end of 2028.
Retail
Updated September 2026
Retail Real Estate 2026: Vacancy, Rents
U.S. retail vacancy was 6.0% in Q2 2026, according to Cushman & Wakefield, well below its 7.4% historical average, while CBRE put the national availability rate at 4.9% with asking rents up 2.4% year over year. New supply is minimal—the active development pipeline is under 0.3% of inventory—but Trepp's CMBS retail delinquency rate still stood at 6.96% in July 2026, so tight fundamentals have not removed property-level capital stress.
Industrial
Updated September 2026
Industrial Vacancy & Market Trends 2026
U.S. industrial vacancy fell to 6.9% in Q2 2026, according to Cushman & Wakefield, as 62.1 million square feet of net absorption met just 62 million square feet of deliveries; CBRE measured vacancy at 6.5%, its first quarterly decline since Q2 2022. Shallow-bay space remains the tightest segment at 4.8% vacancy, versus 8.1% for buildings over 500,000 square feet, while national asking rents rose 2.9% year over year.
Self-Storage
Updated September 2026
Self-Storage Market Data 2026
U.S. self-storage occupancy is holding above 90% at the largest REITs—92.5% at Public Storage and 94.2% at Extra Space in Q2 2026—but rents are still soft, with Yardi Matrix reporting street rates down 2.2% year over year in August 2026. Supply is easing: Marcus & Millichap projects 53 million square feet of 2026 completions, the smallest delivery slate since 2016, while deal volume rose almost 50% year over year through June.
Senior Housing
Updated September 2026
Senior Housing Market 2026: Occupancy & Supply
Senior housing entered the second half of 2026 with occupancy at a multi-cycle high and construction at its lowest level since 2012. That supports existing-property fundamentals, but it also puts more weight on operator execution and capital structure: a property can benefit from strong sector demand and still face a maturity, recapitalization or stabilization problem.
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