What is the U.S. office vacancy rate in 2026?

It depends on the data provider. CBRE reported 18.3% in Q2 2026, down 30 basis points from Q1; Cushman & Wakefield reported 20.1% for Q2 2026; and Yardi Matrix reported 17.8% in August 2026, down 90 basis points year over year.

What is the office CMBS delinquency rate?

Trepp reported the office CMBS delinquency rate at 11.91% in July 2026, up 34 basis points from June, compared with an overall CMBS delinquency rate of 7.86%. Yardi Matrix's August 2026 report cites an office rate of 12%.

How much office debt is maturing?

Yardi Matrix reports about 14,000 office properties with loans that recently matured or mature by the end of 2028, totaling $289.2 billion, or 33.5% of office loan volume. Nearly 59% of those loans originated before 2021.

Are banks lending on office buildings in 2026?

The Federal Reserve's July 2026 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey found a moderate net share of banks eased standards for loans secured by nonfarm nonresidential properties, a category that includes office. Office-specific refinancing remains difficult for many older loans, which is why bridge and recapitalization capital can be relevant.

Stokley Intelligence · Asset class

Office Market 2026: Vacancy & Distress

A structured view of the developments shaping the U.S. office market—and the situations those developments may create for owners, lenders and investors.

Updated September 2026 · Data through August 2026

In short

U.S. office vacancy is edging down from its peak: CBRE reported 18.3% in Q2 2026, down 30 basis points in the quarter, as new construction fell to 15.4 million sq. ft. Debt stress has not eased at the same pace—Trepp's office CMBS delinquency rate rose to 11.91% in July 2026, and Yardi Matrix counts $289.2 billion of office loans that recently matured or mature by the end of 2028.

Current signals

18.3%

Office vacancy

CBRE U.S. Office Market Report · Q2 2026

11.91%

Office CMBS delinquency

Trepp via MBA Newslink · July 2026

$289.2B

Office loans maturing through 2028

Yardi Matrix · August 2026

15.4M sq. ft.

Under construction

CBRE · Q2 2026, down 87% from Q2 2020 peak

Sourced market view · 01

What's happening

Leasing is recovering unevenly. CBRE reported Q2 2026 net absorption of 12.6 million sq. ft. and leasing activity of 62.4 million sq. ft., up 16% year over year, with prime vacancy falling to 12.3%. Cushman & Wakefield measured national vacancy at 20.1% in Q2 2026, down only 10 basis points year over year, with vacancy declining in 49 of its 92 tracked markets.

Sourced market view · 02

What changed

Supply has effectively stopped growing. CBRE recorded only 2.2 million sq. ft. of Q2 completions—the lowest first half since it began tracking in 1990—and Cushman & Wakefield reports U.S. office inventory down 33 million sq. ft. over five quarters as buildings are removed or converted. Vacant sublease space fell 15.4% year over year to 95.6 million sq. ft., per Cushman & Wakefield.

Sourced market view · 03

Why it matters

Improving averages do not refinance individual buildings. Yardi Matrix reports that nearly 59% of the $289.2 billion in office loans maturing through 2028 originated before 2021, under very different valuation and leasing assumptions. Meanwhile, Trepp's office CMBS delinquency rate climbed 34 basis points to 11.91% in July 2026, and MSCI data show Q2 2026 office sales of $18.5 billion, down 9% year over year.

Stokley analysis

Stokley's perspective

Stokley view: the office market is splitting between buildings that tenants want and buildings that their capital structures can no longer support. That gap is where first-position bridge capital can be useful—giving an owner or buyer with a credible leasing, repositioning or conversion plan the time a conventional lender will not, while the new basis reflects today's values rather than pre-2021 underwriting.

Capital pressure

Where market conditions become financing events.

Stokley analysis—not a representation that every property or borrower faces the same conditions.

01Loans originated before 2021 are maturing against lower valuations, leaving refinance proceeds short of the existing balance.
02Leasing gains are concentrated in prime space, so commodity and older buildings may not show the cash flow a permanent lender requires.
03Tenant improvement and leasing-commission costs can require fresh capital before occupancy gains reach net operating income.
04Sales volume remains thin relative to the debt coming due, which can compress timelines for owners who need to sell or recapitalize.

Opportunity lens

Situations we're interested in.

Maturity and refinance gaps

Office properties with stable or improving leasing whose loan comes due before a conventional refinance can be sized or closed.

Discounted acquisitions

Buyers acquiring office assets at a reset basis who need time-sensitive capital to close and execute a leasing, repositioning or conversion plan.

Lender pressure and recapitalizations

Situations involving maturity defaults, note sales, partnership disputes or a lender-driven timeline where the real estate still supports a first-position loan.

Evidence

Sources and context.

Forward watchlist

What we're watching next.

—Trepp's monthly office CMBS delinquency and special servicing rates
—The gap between prime and overall vacancy in CBRE and Cushman & Wakefield quarterly data
—Inventory removals and office-to-residential or other conversion activity
—Office sales volume and pricing in MSCI and Yardi Matrix data as distressed assets trade
—Bank CRE lending standards in the Federal Reserve's Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey

Questions answered

Market and financing context.

What is the U.S. office vacancy rate in 2026?: It depends on the data provider. CBRE reported 18.3% in Q2 2026, down 30 basis points from Q1; Cushman & Wakefield reported 20.1% for Q2 2026; and Yardi Matrix reported 17.8% in August 2026, down 90 basis points year over year.
What is the office CMBS delinquency rate?: Trepp reported the office CMBS delinquency rate at 11.91% in July 2026, up 34 basis points from June, compared with an overall CMBS delinquency rate of 7.86%. Yardi Matrix's August 2026 report cites an office rate of 12%.
How much office debt is maturing?: Yardi Matrix reports about 14,000 office properties with loans that recently matured or mature by the end of 2028, totaling $289.2 billion, or 33.5% of office loan volume. Nearly 59% of those loans originated before 2021.
Are banks lending on office buildings in 2026?: The Federal Reserve's July 2026 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey found a moderate net share of banks eased standards for loans secured by nonfarm nonresidential properties, a category that includes office. Office-specific refinancing remains difficult for many older loans, which is why bridge and recapitalization capital can be relevant.

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Office hard money loans

First-position office loans nationwide, typically $1M–$5M.

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