What is the industrial vacancy rate in 2026?

Cushman & Wakefield reported U.S. industrial vacancy of 6.9% in Q2 2026, down 10 basis points from Q1. CBRE measured 6.5% and JLL 6.8% for the same quarter; figures differ because each firm tracks a different inventory.

Is small-bay industrial outperforming big-box warehouses?

On vacancy, yes. Cushman & Wakefield reported shallow-bay vacancy of 4.8% in Q2 2026 versus 8.1% for buildings over 500,000 square feet, though big-box vacancy is falling faster. CBRE notes that shallow-bay buildings built since 2010 make up only 5% of that inventory, limiting new supply.

Is industrial construction slowing down in 2026?

Deliveries are. CBRE reported Q2 2026 completions of 47.9 million square feet, the lowest quarterly total since 2016. The pipeline is growing again, however: JLL counted 276 million square feet under construction, up 9.2% year over year.

Are industrial rents still rising in 2026?

Modestly, depending on the source. Cushman & Wakefield reported national asking rents up 2.9% year over year in Q2 2026, while JLL put average asking rent at $10.45 per square foot and landlords in the tightest markets regaining pricing leverage.

Stokley Intelligence · Asset class

Industrial Vacancy & Market Trends 2026

A sourced view of U.S. warehouse, distribution and small-bay industrial fundamentals—and the financing situations those fundamentals may create for owners and investors.

Updated September 2026 · Data through Q2 2026

In short

U.S. industrial vacancy fell to 6.9% in Q2 2026, according to Cushman & Wakefield, as 62.1 million square feet of net absorption met just 62 million square feet of deliveries; CBRE measured vacancy at 6.5%, its first quarterly decline since Q2 2022. Shallow-bay space remains the tightest segment at 4.8% vacancy, versus 8.1% for buildings over 500,000 square feet, while national asking rents rose 2.9% year over year.

Current signals

6.9%

National vacancy

Cushman & Wakefield U.S. Industrial MarketBeat · Q2 2026

85.1M SF

Net absorption

CBRE U.S. Industrial & Logistics · Q2 2026 · first quarter since Q2 2022 that demand outpaced completions

4.8%

Shallow-bay vacancy

Cushman & Wakefield · Q2 2026 · vs. 8.1% for 500,000 SF+ buildings

47.9M SF

Quarterly completions

CBRE · Q2 2026 · lowest quarterly total since 2016

Sourced market view · 01

What's happening

Industrial demand strengthened through mid-2026. Cushman & Wakefield reported national vacancy of 6.9% in Q2 2026 with new leasing of 193.4 million square feet, the highest quarterly total since mid-2022. CBRE measured Q2 net absorption at 85.1 million square feet and JLL at 99.1 million square feet, with JLL noting a seven-fold year-over-year increase.

Sourced market view · 02

What changed

The supply wave has receded. CBRE reported Q2 2026 completions of 47.9 million square feet, the lowest quarterly total since 2016, and Cushman & Wakefield said first-half deliveries of 119 million square feet were nearly 20% below the same period last year. At the same time, the pipeline is rebuilding: JLL counted 276 million square feet under construction, up 9.2% year over year.

Sourced market view · 03

Why it matters

The recovery is uneven by size and age. Cushman & Wakefield reported that vacancy in buildings over 500,000 square feet has fallen 300 basis points from its late-2024 peak to 8.1%, while shallow-bay vacancy edged modestly higher but remains tight at 4.8%, and first-half absorption was concentrated in properties built since 2020. Older mid-size and small-bay assets can therefore face very different leasing and refinancing outcomes than the national headline suggests.

Stokley analysis

Stokley's perspective

Stokley view: improving sector fundamentals do not automatically fix an individual building's capital structure. First-position bridge or hard-money capital can be useful where an industrial owner has a real lease-up, repositioning or acquisition plan but a timeline that conventional lenders—still conservative on permanent-loan leverage, per CBRE—cannot meet. Small-bay and older multi-tenant assets with tight local demand but thin or rolling rent rolls are a natural fit for that kind of short-duration capital.

Capital pressure

Where market conditions become financing events.

Stokley analysis—not a representation that every property or borrower faces the same conditions.

01Loans originated on 2021–2022 valuations can mature before rising rents and falling vacancy show up in trailing NOI or appraisal proceeds.
02CBRE reported the average permanent-loan loan-to-value ratio fell to 57.5% in Q2 2026 from 60.1% in Q1, which can leave a refinance short of the existing balance.
03The Federal Reserve's July 2026 SLOOS found construction and land development standards basically unchanged on net, with a moderate net share of banks reporting weaker CLD loan demand.
04Vacant or partially leased older buildings can sit outside a conventional lender's box even as the national market tightens, because demand is concentrated in post-2020 product.

Opportunity lens

Situations we're interested in.

Lease-up and vacancy bridges

Industrial buildings with credible leasing prospects that need time to replace a departing tenant or fill vacant bays before qualifying for permanent debt.

Small-bay and multi-tenant repositioning

Older shallow-bay or flex properties in tight submarkets where improvements, re-tenanting or re-demising can capture demand that new construction is not supplying.

Maturities and time-sensitive acquisitions

Maturing loans, partnership buyouts or purchase deadlines where the property case is sound but conventional lenders cannot underwrite or close on the required timeline.

Evidence

Sources and context.

Forward watchlist

What we're watching next.

—Whether quarterly net absorption continues to exceed completions after the first such quarter since 2022
—The rebuilding construction pipeline—276M SF per JLL and about 305M SF per Cushman & Wakefield—and how quickly it delivers
—Shallow-bay vacancy, which Cushman & Wakefield reported edging higher in Q2 2026 from very low levels
—Asking rent momentum: Cushman & Wakefield reported 2.9% annual growth, with 67% of its 83 tracked markets posting positive rent growth
—Industrial CMBS delinquency, which Trepp reported at 1.13% in July 2026 against 7.86% for all CMBS

Questions answered

Market and financing context.

What is the industrial vacancy rate in 2026?: Cushman & Wakefield reported U.S. industrial vacancy of 6.9% in Q2 2026, down 10 basis points from Q1. CBRE measured 6.5% and JLL 6.8% for the same quarter; figures differ because each firm tracks a different inventory.
Is small-bay industrial outperforming big-box warehouses?: On vacancy, yes. Cushman & Wakefield reported shallow-bay vacancy of 4.8% in Q2 2026 versus 8.1% for buildings over 500,000 square feet, though big-box vacancy is falling faster. CBRE notes that shallow-bay buildings built since 2010 make up only 5% of that inventory, limiting new supply.
Is industrial construction slowing down in 2026?: Deliveries are. CBRE reported Q2 2026 completions of 47.9 million square feet, the lowest quarterly total since 2016. The pipeline is growing again, however: JLL counted 276 million square feet under construction, up 9.2% year over year.
Are industrial rents still rising in 2026?: Modestly, depending on the source. Cushman & Wakefield reported national asking rents up 2.9% year over year in Q2 2026, while JLL put average asking rent at $10.45 per square foot and landlords in the tightest markets regaining pricing leverage.

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Industrial hard money loans

First-position industrial loans nationwide, typically $1M–$5M.

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