Stokley CRE Intelligence · Asset class
A structured view of the developments shaping cold storage, and the situations those developments may create for owners, lenders and investors.
In short
U.S. cold storage vacancy reached a record 7.7% in the first half of 2026, according to Newmark, after the sector's first negative first-half absorption since 2007. The weakness sits mostly in older facilities: buildings from before 2006 hold 68% of vacant space, while tenants move into newer product. For owners of older buildings, that turns into refinance, re-leasing and upgrade decisions on a clock.
Current signals
7.7%
Newmark · record high · 1H 2026
–56M cu ft
First negative first half since 2007
68%
Newmark · 2Q 2026
$130–$350
vs. $85–$150 for dry warehouse · Newmark
Sourced market view · 01
Cold storage is working through a supply hangover. Newmark's 1H 2026 report counted roughly 56 million cubic feet of move-outs against 41 million cubic feet of deliveries, pushing vacancy to 7.7%. Leaner inventories across the food supply chain and cautious consumer spending mean users need less refrigerated space, just as a large wave of new buildings finishes.
Sourced market view · 02
The market split by building age. Newmark found that facilities delivered since 2020 captured nearly all recent demand, while older buildings have posted negative absorption since 2022. Buildings from before 2006 now hold 68% of vacant space. At the same time, users bought a growing share of facilities, almost 36% of buyers in the latest period versus 10% in 2024, and new projects average about 300,000 square feet while the typical lease is about 125,000.
Sourced market view · 03
Replacement cost still supports the asset class. Newmark puts new cold storage at roughly $130–$350 per square foot to build versus $85–$150 for dry warehouse, and says converting existing dry buildings runs about $100–$150 per square foot. So a functional older facility in the right location isn't worthless. But it may need refrigeration, roof or floor work to compete, and many lenders are cautious with older cold storage during a soft patch.
Stokley analysis
We start with the building and the location, not the national vacancy number. On cold storage that means the refrigeration system's age and condition, insulation, floors and roof, power, dock and ceiling height, and how close the site is to the food users it serves. An older facility with a clear upgrade plan, or one changing hands at a basis well below replacement cost, can be a sound real estate loan even when the sector headline is weak.
Opportunity lens
Owners of pre-2006 facilities facing a maturity while a lender is pulling back from the asset type or wants a new tenant in place first.
Refrigeration, roof, floor or power work needed to compete for tenants leaving older buildings, financed before the new lease is signed.
Buying a functional facility below replacement cost, or converting suitable dry space to cold, on a timeline a bank won't meet.
Questions answered
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